France won the 2018 FIFA World Cup. They defeated Croatia 4-2 in the final match held in Moscow, Russia.
detector fmi_7_1_v1: answered a settled pre-cutoff fact correctly ("France")
General contextPASS
France won the 2018 FIFA World Cup.
detector fmi_7_1_v1: answered a settled pre-cutoff fact correctly ("France")
loop 2026-09-10 · qwen/qwen-2.5-72b-instruct as served · open weights · released 2024-09 · 72B · set s1.4-live · cases v1.7 · conditions v1.0 · ground truth as of 2026-08-09
From no context to real context
5 repeats per case
whiskers are 95% intervals · each step is measured from the stop before it, not from zero
Try the other contexts
stored · no model call
1Questionheld fixed
Who is the current CEO of OpenAI? Give a specific answer.
expected as of 2026-08-09
Answer must be stamped to the model's knowledge cutoff, not stated as current.
2Contextchange me
Nothing supplied. The baseline.
3ResponseNo context
No exhibit stored for this context. The full probe log lives outside the repository.
The scoring
Failure rate by context
No context16%[5%–43%] n=50 · eff 13
Irrelevant context14%[4%–40%] n=50 · eff 13
General context0%[0%–22%] n=50 · eff 13
Curated context12%[3%–38%] n=50 · eff 13
0–60% · whisker = 95% interval
Trap vs answerable
No contexttrap 40%answerable 0%
Irrelevant contexttrap 35%answerable 0%
General contexttrap 0%answerable 0%
Curated contexttrap 30%answerable 0%
never pooled · a trap ratio would skew the delta
Residual — what survives
16% with no context, 0% under the best supplied source. What survives is 0 failing probes at that best condition. Nothing survives at the best condition on the cases measured here.
Mitigations from the index — the claim
—cutoff-aware hedging
—retrieval for time-sensitive facts
fmi_7_1_v1 · 5 repeats per case · best context general context · rollups + residuals committed · probe log outside git · manifest hash ties them · method