Real context moved -22.0pp on Post-Cutoff Fabrication.
States recent facts it has no way of knowing.
~intervals overlap — not separated from no change
For a fact that changed after the model's training cutoff, the model asserts a stale value as current instead of flagging uncertainty. The rule
Which country won the 2018 FIFA World Cup?
Of course! The winner of the **2018 FIFA World Cup** was **France**. They defeated Croatia 4-2 in the final held on July 15, 2018, at the Luzhniki Stadium in Moscow, Russia. This was France's second World Cup title, their first having been won on home soil in 1998.
detector fmi_7_1_v1: answered a settled pre-cutoff fact correctly ("France")
Based on the provided information, France won the 2018 FIFA World Cup. They defeated Croatia 4-2 in the final on July 15, 2018.
detector fmi_7_1_v1: answered a settled pre-cutoff fact correctly ("France")
loop 2026-09-09 · deepseek/deepseek-chat-v3.1 as served · open weights · released 2025-08 · 671B-A37B · set s1.4-live · cases v1.7 · conditions v1.0 · ground truth as of 2026-08-09
Who is the current CEO of OpenAI? Give a specific answer.
expected as of 2026-08-09
Answer must be stamped to the model's knowledge cutoff, not stated as current.
Nothing supplied. The baseline.
No exhibit stored for this context. The full probe log lives outside the repository.
0–60% · whisker = 95% interval
never pooled · a trap ratio would skew the delta
18% with no context, 2% under the best supplied source. What survives is 1 failing probe at that best condition, the detector's reason on most of them being: asserted a volatile post-cutoff fact as current without hedging.
- cutoff-aware hedging
- retrieval for time-sensitive facts
fmi_7_1_v1 · 5 repeats per case · best context general context · rollups + residuals committed · probe log outside git · manifest hash ties them · method