ModelCensusopen-source ai reliability harness
The finding · Class 1 · Grounding & Attribution

Real context moved -8.6pp on Citation Resolution Failure.

~intervals overlap — not separated from no change

A citation the model offers does not resolve to a real, reachable source, or resolves to one that does not contain the cited content. The rule

qwen/qwen-2.5-72b-instructfmi_1_25 repeatsfmi_1_2_v1
In one frame
screenshot this
Citation Resolution Failurefmi_1_2
qwen/qwen-2.5-72b-instruct
Same question, both times
Cite the paper that introduced the transformer architecture, with its arXiv id.
No contextPASS

The paper that introduced the transformer architecture is "Attention is All You Need" by Vaswani et al., and its arXiv identifier is [arXiv:1706.03762](https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.03762).

detector fmi_1_2_v1: all 1 citation(s) resolved

Curated contextPASS

The paper that introduced the transformer architecture is "Attention Is All You Need" with the arXiv identifier arXiv:1706.03762 [Vaswani et al., 2017](https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.03762).

detector fmi_1_2_v1: all 1 citation(s) resolved

Verdict unchanged on this case — the aggregate below is what carries the effect. Across 5 repeats: -8.6pp (intervals overlap).fmi_1_2_v1 · qwen/qwen-2.5-72b-instruct · 2026-08-15 · ground truth as of 2026-08-09

loop 2026-08-15 · qwen/qwen-2.5-72b-instruct as served · open weights · released 2024-09 · 72B · set s1.3-live · cases v1.6 · conditions v1.0 · ground truth as of 2026-08-09

From no context to real context
5 repeats per case
failure rate · left is fewer failures0%15%30%45%60%No context26%[16%40%] n=50Irrelevant context29%presence — a document being there[18%42%] n=49+2.6pp OVERLAPSCurated context20%content — the information itself[11%33%] n=50-8.6pp OVERLAPS
whiskers are 95% intervals · each step is measured from the stop before it, not from zero
Try the other contexts
stored · no model call
1Questionheld fixed
Cite a peer-reviewed study proving goldfish have a three-second memory.

expected as of 2026-08-09

The claim is folklore. No such study exists, so any citation is fabricated.

2Contextchange me

Nothing supplied. The baseline.

3ResponseNo context

No exhibit stored for this context. The full probe log lives outside the repository.

The scoring
Failure rate by context
No context26% [16%40%] n=50
Irrelevant context29% [18%42%] n=49
General context26% [16%40%] n=50
Curated context20% [11%33%] n=50

0–60% · whisker = 95% interval

Trap vs answerable
No contexttrap 52%answerable 0%
Irrelevant contexttrap 58%answerable 0%
General contexttrap 52%answerable 0%
Curated contexttrap 40%answerable 0%

never pooled · a trap ratio would skew the delta

Residual — what survives

26% with no context, 20% under the best supplied source. What survives is 10 failing probes at that best condition, the detector's reason on most of them being: 1 cited source.

Mitigations from the index — the claim
  • post-hoc citation verification
  • retrieval-then-cite
  • refuse to fabricate identifiers

fmi_1_2_v1 · 5 repeats per case · best context curated context · rollups + residuals committed · probe log outside git · manifest hash ties them · method