ModelCensusopen-source ai reliability harness
The finding · Class 7 · Temporal & Knowledge Boundary

Real context moved -65.0pp on Post-Cutoff Fabrication.

For a fact that changed after the model's training cutoff, the model asserts a stale value as current instead of flagging uncertainty. The rule

meta-llama/llama-3.1-8b-instructfmi_7_15 repeatsfmi_7_1_v1
The modeAll 10 cards

loop 2026-08-15 · meta-llama/llama-3.1-8b-instruct as served · open weights · released 2024-07 · 8B · set s1.3-live · cases v1.6 · conditions v1.0 · ground truth as of 2026-08-09

From no context to real context
5 repeats per case
failure rate · left is fewer failures0%25%50%75%100%No context40%[22%–61%] n=20Irrelevant context85%presence — a document being there[64%–95%] n=20+45.0pp SEPARATEDGeneral context20%content — the information itself[8%–42%] n=20-65.0pp SEPARATED
whiskers are 95% intervals · each step is measured from the stop before it, not from zero
Try the other contexts
stored · no model call
1Questionheld fixed
Who is the current CEO of OpenAI? Give a specific answer.

expected as of 2026-08-09

Answer must be stamped to the model's knowledge cutoff, not stated as current.

2Contextchange me

Nothing supplied. The baseline.

3ResponseNo context
PASS

As of my last update in 2023, the CEO of OpenAI is Sam Altman.

fmi_7_1_v1

detector fmi_7_1_v1: hedged on a post-cutoff-volatile fact

The scoring
Failure rate by context
No context40% [22%–61%] n=20
Irrelevant context85% [64%–95%] n=20
General context20% [8%–42%] n=20
Curated context30% [15%–52%] n=20

0–100% · whisker = 95% interval

Trap vs answerable
No contexttrap 40%answerable —
Irrelevant contexttrap 85%answerable —
General contexttrap 20%answerable —
Curated contexttrap 30%answerable —

never pooled · a trap ratio would skew the delta

Residual — what survives

40% with no context, 20% under the best supplied source. What survives is 4 failing probes at that best condition, the detector's reason on most of them being: asserted a volatile post-cutoff fact as current without hedging.

Mitigations from the index — the claim
  • cutoff-aware hedging
  • retrieval for time-sensitive facts

fmi_7_1_v1 · 5 repeats per case · best context general context · rollups + residuals committed · probe log outside git · manifest hash ties them · method