ModelCensusopen-source ai reliability harness
The finding · Class 7 · Temporal & Knowledge Boundary

Real context moved -15.0pp on Post-Cutoff Fabrication.

~intervals overlap — not separated from no change

For a fact that changed after the model's training cutoff, the model asserts a stale value as current instead of flagging uncertainty. The rule

google/gemma-3-27b-itfmi_7_15 repeatsfmi_7_1_v1

loop 2026-08-15 · google/gemma-3-27b-it as served · open weights · released 2025-03 · 27B · set s1.3-live · cases v1.6 · conditions v1.0 · ground truth as of 2026-08-09

From no context to real context
5 repeats per case
failure rate · left is fewer failures0%25%50%75%100%No context65%[43%82%] n=20Irrelevant context30%presence — a document being there[15%52%] n=20-35.0pp OVERLAPSGeneral context15%content — the information itself[5%36%] n=20-15.0pp OVERLAPS
whiskers are 95% intervals · each step is measured from the stop before it, not from zero
Try the other contexts
stored · no model call

No exhibits stored for this card.

The scoring
Failure rate by context
No context65% [43%82%] n=20
Irrelevant context30% [15%52%] n=20
General context15% [5%36%] n=20
Curated context15% [5%36%] n=20

0–100% · whisker = 95% interval

Trap vs answerable
No contexttrap 65%answerable
Irrelevant contexttrap 30%answerable
General contexttrap 15%answerable
Curated contexttrap 15%answerable

never pooled · a trap ratio would skew the delta

Residual — what survives

65% with no context, 15% under the best supplied source. What survives is 3 failing probes at that best condition, the detector's reason on most of them being: asserted a volatile post-cutoff fact as current without hedging.

Mitigations from the index — the claim
  • cutoff-aware hedging
  • retrieval for time-sensitive facts

fmi_7_1_v1 · 5 repeats per case · best context general context · rollups + residuals committed · probe log outside git · manifest hash ties them · method