Real context moved -5.0pp on Post-Cutoff Fabrication.
~intervals overlap — not separated from no change
For a fact that changed after the model's training cutoff, the model asserts a stale value as current instead of flagging uncertainty. The rule
loop 2026-08-15 · qwen/qwen-2.5-72b-instruct as served · open weights · released 2024-09 · 72B · set s1.2-live · cases v1.4 · conditions v1.0 · ground truth as of 2026-08-09
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0–60% · whisker = 95% interval
never pooled · a trap ratio would skew the delta
Unchanged by context: 30% with none, 25% with the strongest supplied source. For a control mode that flat line is the result — it is what licenses reading movement elsewhere in this loop as grounding rather than as a document being present.
- cutoff-aware hedging
- retrieval for time-sensitive facts
fmi_7_1_v1 · 5 repeats per case · best context general context · rollups + residuals committed · probe log outside git · manifest hash ties them · method