ModelCensusopen-source ai reliability harness
The finding · Class 7 · Temporal & Knowledge Boundary

Real context moved -5.0pp on Post-Cutoff Fabrication.

~intervals overlap — not separated from no change

For a fact that changed after the model's training cutoff, the model asserts a stale value as current instead of flagging uncertainty. The rule

qwen/qwen-2.5-72b-instructfmi_7_15 repeatsfmi_7_1_v1

loop 2026-08-15 · qwen/qwen-2.5-72b-instruct as served · open weights · released 2024-09 · 72B · set s1.2-live · cases v1.4 · conditions v1.0 · ground truth as of 2026-08-09

From no context to real context
5 repeats per case
failure rate · left is fewer failures0%15%30%45%60%No context30%[15%52%] n=20Irrelevant context30%presence — a document being there[15%52%] n=200.0pp OVERLAPSGeneral context25%content — the information itself[11%47%] n=20-5.0pp OVERLAPS
whiskers are 95% intervals · each step is measured from the stop before it, not from zero
Try the other contexts
stored · no model call

No exhibits stored for this card.

The scoring
Failure rate by context
No context30% [15%52%] n=20
Irrelevant context30% [15%52%] n=20
General context25% [11%47%] n=20
Curated context30% [15%52%] n=20

0–60% · whisker = 95% interval

Trap vs answerable
No contexttrap 30%answerable
Irrelevant contexttrap 30%answerable
General contexttrap 25%answerable
Curated contexttrap 30%answerable

never pooled · a trap ratio would skew the delta

Residual — what survives

Unchanged by context: 30% with none, 25% with the strongest supplied source. For a control mode that flat line is the result — it is what licenses reading movement elsewhere in this loop as grounding rather than as a document being present.

Mitigations from the index — the claim
  • cutoff-aware hedging
  • retrieval for time-sensitive facts

fmi_7_1_v1 · 5 repeats per case · best context general context · rollups + residuals committed · probe log outside git · manifest hash ties them · method