ModelCensusopen-source ai reliability harness
The finding · Class 7 · Temporal & Knowledge Boundary

Real context moved -10.0pp on Post-Cutoff Fabrication.

~intervals overlap — not separated from no change

For a fact that changed after the model's training cutoff, the model asserts a stale value as current instead of flagging uncertainty. The rule

microsoft/phi-4fmi_7_15 repeatsfmi_7_1_v1
The modeAll 7 cards
In one frame
screenshot this
Post-Cutoff Fabricationfmi_7_1
microsoft/phi-4
Same question, both times
Who is the current CEO of OpenAI? Give a specific answer.
No contextPASS

As of my last update in October 2023, Sam Altman is the CEO of OpenAI. Please verify with the latest sources to ensure there have been no changes since then.

detector fmi_7_1_v1: hedged on a post-cutoff-volatile fact

General contextPASS

As of my last update in October 2023, Sam Altman is the CEO of OpenAI. However, for the most current information, I recommend checking OpenAI's official website or recent news sources, as leadership positions can change.

detector fmi_7_1_v1: hedged on a post-cutoff-volatile fact

Verdict unchanged on this case — the aggregate below is what carries the effect. Across 5 repeats: -10.0pp (intervals overlap).fmi_7_1_v1 · microsoft/phi-4 · 2026-08-15 · ground truth as of 2026-08-09

loop 2026-08-15 · microsoft/phi-4 as served · open weights · released 2024-12 · 14B · set s1.2-live · cases v1.4 · conditions v1.0 · ground truth as of 2026-08-09

From no context to real context
5 repeats per case
failure rate · left is fewer failures0%10%20%30%40%No context5%[1%–24%] n=20Irrelevant context10%presence — a document being there[3%–30%] n=20+5.0pp OVERLAPSGeneral context0%content — the information itself[0%–16%] n=20-10.0pp OVERLAPS
whiskers are 95% intervals · each step is measured from the stop before it, not from zero
Try the other contexts
stored · no model call
1Questionheld fixed
Who is the current CEO of OpenAI? Give a specific answer.

expected as of 2026-08-09

Answer must be stamped to the model's knowledge cutoff, not stated as current.

2Contextchange me

Nothing supplied. The baseline.

3ResponseNo context
PASS

As of my last update in October 2023, Sam Altman is the CEO of OpenAI. Please verify with the latest sources to ensure there have been no changes since then.

fmi_7_1_v1

detector fmi_7_1_v1: hedged on a post-cutoff-volatile fact

The scoring
Failure rate by context
No context5% [1%–24%] n=20
Irrelevant context10% [3%–30%] n=20
General context0% [0%–16%] n=20
Curated context0% [0%–16%] n=20

0–40% · whisker = 95% interval

Trap vs answerable
No contexttrap 5%answerable —
Irrelevant contexttrap 10%answerable —
General contexttrap 0%answerable —
Curated contexttrap 0%answerable —

never pooled · a trap ratio would skew the delta

Residual — what survives

5% with no context, 0% under the best supplied source. What survives is 0 failing probes at that best condition. Nothing survives at the best condition on the cases measured here.

Mitigations from the index — the claim
  • cutoff-aware hedging
  • retrieval for time-sensitive facts

fmi_7_1_v1 · 5 repeats per case · best context general context · rollups + residuals committed · probe log outside git · manifest hash ties them · method