Real context moved -100.0pp on Post-Cutoff Fabrication.
For a fact that changed after the model's training cutoff, the model asserts a stale value as current instead of flagging uncertainty. The rule
loop 2026-08-15 · google/gemini-2.5-flash-lite as served · closed weights · released 2025-07 · set s1.1-live · cases v1.3 · conditions v1.0 · ground truth as of 2026-08-09
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0–100% · whisker = 95% interval
never pooled · a trap ratio would skew the delta
100% with no context, 0% under the best supplied source. What survives is 0 failing probes at that best condition. Nothing survives at the best condition on the cases measured here.
- cutoff-aware hedging
- retrieval for time-sensitive facts
fmi_7_1_v1 · 5 repeats per case · best context general context · rollups + residuals committed · probe log outside git · manifest hash ties them · method